Popular science sino-us trade conflict, domestic organic silicon market situation will be how?

by:Cupidove     2020-08-12

affected by A trade war with China in early June, opened A shares tumbled last Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday continued weak rebound in gem under open on Friday. Organic silicon plate rose on Friday, one set of harden, xinan shares rose more than 5%, embellish grain materials, xingfa group, hesheng silicon industry to go up.

released on June 15, the United States impose tariffs on Chinese goods list, the list in the second group of duties, of siloxane in primary form (from China 3910). Included in the tax program. In response to the U. S. trade in China, and also proposed the implementation of tax in the United States imports of organic silicon products.

according to the bureau of statistics, in 2017 the United States organic silicon export 1 in China. $5. 8 billion, in the first, accounting for more than 12. 0%. Even more than adjacent to the country of Canada and Mexico ( 2012 - 2016 are the largest consumer) 。 China is a trade deficit to the organic silicon, output 1 in 2017. The output of the $5. 8 billion, beauty is only 0. 6. 8 billion dollars, if the silicone trade station explosion, beauty or relative interests will be damaged.

if the trade war, levy customs duties on imports from the organic silicon in China, will bring the influence of the short mid-term is:

( 1) Higher import prices in the short term, the cost of imports to ascend, the organic silicon quantity of exports to China or to suppress, self-sufficient domestic enterprises more benefit;

( 2) Longer term, if the Chinese purchasing reduced the volume of the organic silicon, help domestic import substitution, good domestic organic silicon industry, integration, especially the middle and lower reaches of the layout of the enterprise comparative advantage is more obvious.

the current domestic DMC has start production capacity is close to full capacity, domestic monomer unit because the technology is relatively backward, overseas starts only 7 - for a long time Average 8, device maintenance time is longer, the possibility of technological upgrading is bigger, this means that in the future if the sino-us trade conflict began to take our country imports, domestic downstream of the organic silicon will continue is limited by the supply and price to neutralize the phenomenon such as

the current domestic existing plant start-up time is generally around 2008, nearly 10 years old, have sufficient technical device accounts for only half, this means that half of the device in the overload operation, easy to take security risk, is expected to appear in the next two years focus on technological upgrading probability is bigger.

world organic silicon downstream applications mainly in construction, electronics, automotive, medical, chemical and other fields. From geographical point of view, organic silicon industry mainly concentrated in the asia-pacific, North America, Europe, the three regions, the asia-pacific market accounted for nearly half, which accounts for about a quarter of China's organic silicon market scale, each accounts for about a quarter of North America, Europe market.

2011 - In 2016, the north American market compound growth rate of 4. 6%, the growth of - Western Europe market 0. 3%, the world's average growth rate of 2. 7%, growth in the asia-pacific region is 4. Market growth 2%, China reached 7. 4%, the world's fastest-growing countries.

organic silicon downstream sales market mainly controlled by foreign giants. Intermediates DMC further processing produce silicone rubber products, silicone oil, silicone resin, organic silicon downstream products such as the downstream market mainly by dow corning, wacker chemical, Wallace figure new materials, the chemical and other four giant control the letter, the four silicone companies from Europe and the United States, to master the global sales of more than two-thirds of the market.

the Chinese enterprise's production and sales volume is high, but its sales of organic silicon products are mainly concentrated in the industrial chain shelter-forest, and technology gap between domestic organic silicon products can only be used for lower-end silicone products, polymer intermediates quality level people have a certain gap with overseas enterprise, lead to the organic silicon enterprises in our country relatively low-end products, market share is not high. On the other hand, it shows that China's future machine silicon industry can progress space is huge, in 2016 China silicone market scale of global 23. 69%, if the unit price to the asia-pacific and the world average and even the United States, China will promote 3 respectively. 2%, 7. 6%, 16. 5%.

organic silicon industry short-term sentiment, superposition of a trade war with China, will have outstanding performance in the market rebound, the long term demand growth in the asia-pacific market fast, half of the domestic manufacturers focus on technological upgrading within large probability in the next two years, and the long-term bullish, organic silicon industry development in our country will become the world's first import and export stronghold in the future.

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